By Andrew Manners
Indonesian opposition leader Megawati Soekarnoputri has finally announced that she will nominate Jakarta’s popular mayor, Joko Widodo, as her party’s candidate for the July presidential election. The PDI-P and Joko, however, must overcome a number of challenges before they can lead the country.
Former president and leader of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Megawati Soekarnoputri, has finally declared that she will nominate Jakarta’s hugely popular mayor, Joko Widodo, for the upcoming presidential election in July. The announcement, on 14 March, was shared by the PDI-P via a picture on Twitter. Coming earlier than many expected, the much anticipated news was welcomed by his supporters, with reporters and residents applauding him when he made a low-key visit to North Jakarta. Joko should be the overwhelming favourite in July, with opinion polls giving the 52-year-old a double-digit lead over his nearest rivals. But, with a legislative election and three months still to go, celebrations are being put on hold for now.
On 14 March, the PDI-P announced that Joko, commonly referred to by his nickname Jokowi, would be its candidate in the upcoming presidential election. The decision ended more than a year of speculation, with some observers previously suggesting that Megawati, having lost three elections already, might make a final run at the top job herself. With those theories now put to rest, the PDI-P can focus on campaigning for the upcoming legislative election in April, which, if all goes to plan, should lay the platform for even greater success in the July presidential vote.
Indeed, by most accounts, Jokowi should easily win the presidential election on 9 July. Ever since the former furniture-seller came to public attention in 2012, sweeping Jakarta’s elections to become mayor, he has been touted as a possible future president. His hands-on style and informal demeanour have struck a chord with prospective voters, especially in comparison to the usual political style. This has been widely reflected in opinion polls, too; recent surveys put support for Jokowi at over 40 per cent, four times higher than his closest rival, the former military leader, Prabowo Subianto. Some have even gone so far as to suggest that he could win over half the votes, negating the need for a run-off in September.
But, with over three months to go, and with parliamentary elections scheduled for 9 April, there is much to do before Jokowi can lead South-East Asia’s most populous county. First, the PDI-P must do well in the upcoming legislative election. The country’s electoral laws require that it must win at least 25 per cent of the popular vote, or 20 per cent of seats, to nominate Jokowi by itself. If not, it would be forced to form a coalition. Latest polling shows that the opposition party has the support of around 20 per cent of the potential voters, though that will certainly rise following Jokowi’s nomination. So, in theory at least, the party should be able to nominate Jokowi without the support of another party.
With his candidacy now confirmed, however, Jokowi is likely to face much fiercer public scrutiny in the lead up to the election. Voters are well accustomed to his hands-on approach to fixing problems, such as flooding, traffic and housing shortages in Jakarta, but they know little about his political acumen on matters of national or foreign policy. Other parties, including the ruling Democratic Party (Partai Demokrat, or PD) and Aburizal Bakrie’s Golkar party, will try to exploit this unknown factor, arguing that his good record at running a city counts for little compared to running a country almost 25 times its size.
That is a fair point, of course, and now, with Jokowi relieved of his duties in running Indonesia’s capital, he will have to focus on the broader issues that Indonesia faces. He has proved to be a good communicator on policy issues as mayor of Jakarta and the PDI-P will be hoping that he is a fast learner and can quickly grasp broader challenges. But the party may also choose to pair him with an experienced and well-known vice-presidential candidate, in an effort to cover such bases.
The Democratic Party, meanwhile, has said that it will not nominate a candidate until the results of the legislative election are known. With its support dwindling, it will have to form a coalition to contest the July presidential election. Most likely, it will approach Prabowo Subianto and his Great Indonesia Movement Party.
That would make the presidential election a three-horse race, with Jokowi, Prabowo and Bakrie battling to succeed outgoing president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. With over three months to go until the presidential election, and with Jokowi only receiving his nomination last week, the race may have only just begun and his victory is certainly not assured. But, at this stage at least, few would bet against him.
Andrew Manners is a research analyst for the Indian Ocean Research Programme. This article originally appeared 19 Wednesday at Future Directions.
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